Page 7 - TunnelTalk Annual Review 2013

Finding a formula for delivering
high speed rail in Brazil
After previous aborted attempts to auction the country’s first ever high speed rail link, the Brazilian Government was forced into a strategic rethink. Following the last failure to find a bidder, a new request for international qualifiers was issued, and this time the Government is confident the 511km route that would link the major airport cities of Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Campinas will actually attract bids rather than expressions of interest.
In all respects the selected route is a challenge. It rises from sea level at Rio de Janeiro, passes through the Sierra das Araras mountains, and reaches an elevation of 700m at the plateau on which São Paulo is built. Nearly 18% or about 90km of the alignment requires tunnels, while a further 21% (107km) comprises bridges and viaducts.
Halcrow of the UK (a CH2M-Hill company) and Sinergia of Brazil produced detailed alignment studies, preliminary estimates of cost and passenger traffic projections. The report, seen by TunnelTalk, makes for sobering reading for potential investors and construction consortia that under the old finance- build-operate model were expected to bear all financing and construction costs. Critics argued, and still do, that the passenger figures were overstated and the construction costs understated.
The BR$28 billion (US$13.7 billion) predicted construction cost (in 2008 figures), proved too much for the international financiers and construction consortia that expressed an interest in the last procurement process. Ultimately, none of the groups, from Korea, Japan, Germany, France and China, elected to submit a bid.
This time, Hélio Franca, a Director of the newly-created State company that forms the lynchpin of the new strategy for advancing high speed rail in Brazil, is confident things will be very different.
Both he and his colleague, Bernardo Figueiredo, are former senior executives of Brazil’s National Land Transport Agency (ANTT), the Government organisation that has been responsible for developing high speed rail since the idea was first conceived.
Speaking to TunnelTalk from Brasilia, Franca said: “Last time the concession was auctioned on a single design-build- supply-operate model with all the risks of construction centred on the private sector. The cost-risk ratio was deemed [by private investors and construction companies] to be very high. So what we have done is separate the project into two elements.”
The first is a concession to operate the system, develop the trains and provide the operating technology at a minimum of BR$70.31 (US$35)/train/km).
Assuming that a concessionaire to operate the system is identified, the second
element is construction of the line, and it will be the Brazilian public through public funding that will pay.
“Civil works will be the responsibility of the Government,” said Franca. “We believe that by separating construction and operation, and deciding to finance the full amount of construction from public funds, we have a good system in place.”
To make the operation concession more attractive, the Brazilian Government raised its proposed stake from 30% to 45% in the Special Purpose Entity (SPE) that will be formed with the successful private enterprise operating consortium. With the first phase estimated at BR$7.6 billion (US$3.8 billion), and with RS$5.4 billion (US$2.7 billion) in BNDES loans already secured, this implies a cash investment of approximately BR$1.25 billion (US$626 million) from the successful consortium (based on a 55-45 equity split with the SPE).
“We [the Government] have no fear of taking on the risks of this project,” said EPL President Figueredo. “We are sure that there will be demand for trains.” Brazilian taxpayers will get their substantial investment back through a mix of ticket revenue, earned from owning a 45% share of the SPE, plus concessionary fees earned during the 40-year life of the concession.
Under the terms of the latest auction, the successful consortium will have to:
• guarantee a 99 minute service between
São Paulo and Rio;
• must not include any rail partners that
have suffered a fatal accident in the last five years (down from the 10-year qualification of the last auction); and
• must make 60% of seats available for a price of less than BR$200.
If the project goes ahead, tunnel
construction costs are estimated at more than BR$10 billion (US$5 billion), more than a third of the total project cost.
Peter Kenyon, TunnelTalk
In its final report, Halcrow and the design partners anticipate the use of both hard rock and soft ground TBMs, as well as conventional NATM construction methods. In rural areas, approximately 44km of underground excavations will be required along the selected corridor. This is assumed in the report to be a mix of single tube, double-track 16m diameter TBM driven tunnels for a total of 9.5km, and single tube, double-track conventionally excavated tunnels for a total of 34.5km.
In urban areas the assumption is for 46.5km of twin running tunnels excavated by TBMs with a diameter of 7.85m through soft ground conditions. In coastal Rio de Janeiro in particular, ground conditions are expected to be complex with alignments running under the water table.
One of the longest tunnels, at between 8.6km and 11km, will be through the Sierra das Araras mountains. Its length is determined by the need to stay within a 2.5% gradient parameter. A maximum gradient of 3.5% is possible but only for a continuous distance of less than 6km. The project also calls for between eight and 11 stations, several of them underground.
According to Hélio Franca, the high-risk
Fig 1. 511km route of the Rio-São Paulo-Campinas HSR
Table 1. Section distances and tunnel and bridge percentages
Length (km)
Cost (BR$ million)
Cost/km (BR$ million)
% tunnel
% bridges
% tunnels & bridges
Section 1: Barão de Mauá (RJ) to Galeão Airport (RJ)
15.2
1,367
90.2
22%
34%
56%
Section 2: Galeão Airport (RJ)
to Barra Mansa/Volta Redonda (RJ)
103.1
8,253
80
26%
24%
50%
Section 3: Barra Mansa/ Volta Redonda (RJ) to São José (SP)
210.4
10,923
51.9
6%
22%
28%
Section 4: São José dos Campos (SP) to Guarulhos Airport (SP)
61.8
3,650
59.1
11%
21%
33%
Section 5: Guarulhos Airport (SP) to Campo de Marte (SP)
21.8
2.313
106
81%
0%
81%
Section 6: Campo de Marte (SP) to Viracopos Airport (SP)
75.4
6,565
87.1
28%
22%
50%
Section 7: Viracopos Airport (SP) to Campinas (SP)
23.2
1,558
67.2
10%
7%
17%
*Source: Halcrow/Sinergia TAV Capital Cost Final Report (Sept 2009)
www.TunnelTalk.com TunnelTalk AnnuAl Review 2013
7
MEGA PROJECTS
PREVIEW